Novavax tumbles 31 per cent as waning COVID vaccine demand hits revenue forecast

Novavax slumped nearly 31 per cent yesterday as falling demand for its COVID-19 shot from low- and middle-income nations led the company to cut its annual revenue expectation by half.

Demand for its vaccine is also waning in the US, where it was authorised for use among adults last month and was expected to be preferred by the skeptics of messenger RNA-based shots from Moderna.

The company now expects 2022 revenue between $2 billion and $2.3 billion, compared with its prior forecast of $4 billion to $5 billion when it was hoping to benefit from the demand for its shots as part of the COVAX vaccine sharing programme.

The forecast cut also dashes any hope of Novavax being able to garner a share of the market for the two-dose initial vaccination programme, said George Yordanov, analyst, Cowen.

“We completely share and understand investors’ frustration with management’s execution and lack of accurate near-term guidance,” he said in a note.

Analysts, however, expect the company to capture a small but meaningful share of a fast-developing market for COVID re-vaccinations.

It could still be a ‘viable COVID vaccine player in the future $5-10 billion market’ as it has shown comparable/better clinical profile vs mRNA vaccines, Roger Song, analyst, Jefferies, said in a note.

Edits by EP News Bureau