Novel therapies to drive Crohn’s disease market growth across 8MM to $15 bn by 2032: GlobalData

The future of Crohn’s disease (CD) therapy will be highly dynamic and competitive, with the advancement of developing novel mechanisms of action, both in biologics and with small molecule agents. Though the entry of biosimilars will contract the market, significant growth is expected over the next 8-10 years, driven by the launch of new assets. Against this backdrop, the CD drug sales across the eight-major markets (8MM*) are set to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7 per cent from $9.5 billion in 2022 to $15.0 billion in 2032, forecasts GlobalData.

Adeleke Badejo, Senior Analyst of Immunology at GlobalData, comments, “Within the landscape, the maturation of the selective anti-interleukin (IL)-23 drug class is of note. The anticipated launches in the US and Europe of Janssen’s Tremfya (guselkumab) and Lilly’s mirikizumab, in Q4 2025 and Q3 2026, respectively, are expected to shape the market. These pipeline agents, with AbbVie’s marketed Skyrizi, could be elevated as second-generation therapies over Janssen’s non-selective anti-IL-12/23 Stelara.”

GlobalData’s latest report, “Crohn’s Disease – Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2032,” evaluates the significance and potential of late-stage pipeline agents entering the CD market and determine how these agents will impact the future treatment landscape. Additionally, this report analyses other significant industry forces and key events that will influence the market in the coming years.

Badejo continues, “In addition to the market push from new biologics, the emergence of small molecules are expected to have a significant effect on the market due to patients’ preference for oral administration over the intravenous (IV) or subcutaneous (SC) administration of biologics. These drugs include AbbVie’s approved Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor Rinvoq, and the pipeline sphingosine-1 phosphate receptor modulators (S1PRs), Bristol Myers Squibb’s Zeposia and Pfizer’s etrasimod.”

An anticipated 11 assets in the late-stage pipeline will enter the CD market during the forecast period. These agents are expected to drive the combined sales to approximately $3.6 billion by 2032 in the 8MM. The anti-IL-23 and anti-TL1A (Merck’s MK-7240, Teva’s TEV-48574, Telavant’s RVT-3101) therapies are of particular note, as they are expected to be market leaders and will have significant influence on the market during and beyond the forecast period.

Badejo concludes, “The US market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.1 per cent, with sales of $12.2 billion in 2032. Similarly, the 5EU (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and, the UK) are all expected to experience growth over the forecast period, with the UK experiencing the highest expansion with a CAGR of 4.4 per cent. At the end of the forecast period, Germany will remain the largest market (38.8 per cent) within the 5EU, contributing $858.7 million of the predicted $2.2 billion CD sales in 2032. However, Germany will see the smallest market gain with a CAGR of 1.9 per cent.”

*8MM: The US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan