Pharma market posts 14 per cent growth in November 2013: IMS

The pharmaceutical market was reported at Rs 6763 crores for the month of November 2013, with a growth of 13.8 per cent.

MAT market growth for the industry continued to be below the 10 per cent mark, for the third successive month, in November. However, the higher growth in November has pushed up the figure marginally.

IMS Health view point

The pharma market has remained almost static for the past five months, moving within a narrow range of Rs 6700-6900 crores. After the dip in growth during the months of August-September following the DPCO 2013 notification and implementation, the market has seen a steady improvement in growth, as it grappled with this new policy and gradually stabilised. While some challenges remain (particularly trade margin issues), IMS Health sees an improving trend in this segment.

NLEM SEGMENT GROWTH April – November 2013

The non-NLEM segment which contributes to ~80 per cent of the market has grown at a healthy rate of 15 per cent for the month of November.

Seasonal factor has also contributed to the strong growth in November. Therapies which are closely linked to winter related ailments, have posted strong double digit growths (respiratory +18.6 per cent, anti-infectives +10.9 per cent, and pain/analgesics+14.1 per cent).

Source: IMS Health TSA, November 2013

After clocking a CAGR of 15 per cent during the period 2008-12, the market has slowed progressively, and it is expected to register a single digit growth ranging between eight per cent to nine per cent in 2013. Price control measures (DPCO 2013 notification in mid 2013) and the uncertainty surrounding its implementation both in the trade as well as at the company level, combined with the overall slump in economy have contributed to a large extent to this slowdown.

2013 Market growth trend

For the period MAT November 2013, the pharma market was reported at Rs 77,834 crores, with a growth of 9.2 per cent, over the same period last year.

For the month of November 2013, Alkem was the fastest growing corporations among the Top 10, followed by Macleods Pharma, Sun Pharma and Mankind. Glaxosmithkline registered the highest growth decline among the Top 10 corporations, impacted primarily by the price reduction in its portfolio, falling under the NLEM notified list; Pfizer was the only other corporation among the Top 10, with a decline in growth for the month.

Among the Top 10, Glaxosmithkline climbed up three ranks and Ranbaxy climbed one rank, in the month of November 2013, as compared to previous month; ranking of Zydus, Mankind, Macleods and Pfizer slipped by one rank for the month. Rankings of other corporations remained unchanged. A look at company growths segmented by rankings reveals that the mid-sized organisations as a whole (ranked 31-100) have registered the highest growth of 23 per cent; companies ranked between 11-100 and contributing ~54 per cent of the industry, have grown faster than the market. The Top 10 companies – though growing below the market growth, top contribution of incremental sales in absolute terms (Rs 287 crores).

For the month, growth of local companies outstripped that of MNCs; after posting a decline in October for the first time in 2013, growth of MNCs have shown a marginal improvement in November.

Monthly growth trends Industry vs Therapies

For the month of November 2013, dermatological, anti diabetics and respiratory therapies have posted the highest growths.

2013: Industry growth trend by company type

Seasonal swing during the month of November has pushed sales of acute therapies which contribute to ~70 per cent of the market, outperforming growth of chronic therapies (which continued to grow at healthy double digit levels).

As seen above, while chronic therapies have continued to post consistent healthy growths throughout 2013, it is the fluctuations in acute segment (seasonal / DPCO related) that have impacted overall market growth.