The glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) market experienced significant growth in 2023, generating $37.2 billion in sales, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominating the sector. However, emerging biotech companies are poised to disrupt this landscape, with promising pipeline products expected to generate substantial revenue and challenge the market leaders by 2030, says GlobalData.
Currently, there are 323 active GLP-1Rs in the pipeline, with several estimated to deliver significant returns upon launch. While mega-cap companies dominate the GLP-1R market and are expected to maintain their stronghold in 2030, three smaller biotechs—Viking Therapeutics, Altimmune, and Structure Therapeutics—are emerging as potential disruptors in this drug category, giving hope to innovative newcomers.
The key drugs in this category include Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic (semaglutide), Wegovy (semaglutide), as well as Eli Lilly’s Trulicity (dulaglutide) and Zepbound (tirzepatide). Due to their ability to effectively treat metabolic-related disorders, such as obesity and type 2 diabetes, the 11 approved GLP-1Rs generated sales of $37.2 billion in 2023, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominating the space, accounting for 99 per cent of sales in 2023.
The success of these pharma giants has sparked significant interest in this sector. Now, there are over 300 GLP-1Rs in an active stage of development, striving for their first approval. The market outlook for these products is equally promising, as GlobalData estimates that a number of these pipeline GLP-1Rs will ultimately launch in 2030, subsequently generating sales of $48.5 billion.
Over the next seven years, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are expected to continue their dominance of the GLP-1R space. However, several smaller companies are developing GLP-1Rs and positioning themselves to enter this market, disrupt the landscape, and generate their fair share of returns. The emergence of these newcomers is set to reduce the GLP-1R monopolisation by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with the pharma giants forecast to only capture 78 per cent ($37.6 billion) of 2030 sales.
Jasper Morley, Pharma Analyst, GlobalData, comments, “Based on their market capitalisation, Viking Therapeutics ($5.2 billion), Structure Therapeutics ($1.8 billion), and Altimmune ($642 million) are small- to mid-cap companies that are significantly dwarfed by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. All the three US-based companies have no approved products to date. However, by 2030, GlobalData forecasts them to be ranked among the top 10 companies by GLP-1R sales.”
Viking Therapeutics is expected to lead this group with its dual GLP-1R/ gastric inhibitory polypeptide receptor agonist, VK-2735, which is in Phase II for obesity with an oral route of administration. Estimated to launch in 2028, this drug is forecast to deliver $2 billion in 2030, earning Viking a spot in the list of top 10 companies by GLP-1R sales, after the industry heavyweights: Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and Amgen. The fact that VK-2735 may be the first oral GLP-1R to gain approval in obesity presents further commercial opportunities for Viking.
Altimmune’s pemvidutide is in Phase II for obesity and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). With an expected launch in 2027, pemvidutide is forecast to generate sales of $1.21 billion in 2030. Finally, Structure Therapeutics’ GSBR-1290 is in Phase II for obesity and type 2 diabetes. Similarly to VK-2735, GSBR-1290 is also being developed as an oral formulation. This drug is expected to launch in 2028 and ultimately generate sales of $1.2 billion in 2030.
Morley concludes, “The domination of the GLP-1R landscape by large, mega-cap companies is expected to continue until 2030. However, the entry of emerging biotechs into this space highlights the dynamic potential of this sector. If the forecasts materialise, the three emerging companies will be catapulted onto the global stage, generating huge returns for shareholders. These estimations further highlight the lucrative potential offered by GLP-1Rs for both industry giants and innovative smaller players that are poised to make their mark on the global stage.”
Edits made by EP News Bureau