Shift could reflect a changing demand away from oncology toward addressing metabolic disorders
GLP1 agonist drugs transformed the weight loss and diabetes landscape in 2023, propelled by robust clinical trial results and a surge in endorsements from celebrities and influencers.
While PD1 antagonist drugs currently reign as the top-selling drug class, this status quo is poised for a shift. The ascent of GLP1 agonists is anticipated to surpass PD1 antagonists as the leading drugs on the market in 2024, says GlobalData.
Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor (GLP1R) is a GPCR drug target found in the pancreas and on neurons of the brain. GLP1 agonists work by promoting insulin secretion, which helps maintain blood sugar levels among type 2 diabetics. GLP1 agonists have also demonstrated the ability to promote weight loss. These agents help reduce appetite and delay gastric emptying, leading to reduced food intake useful for people with obesity.
Kevin Marcaida, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “PD1 antagonists dominated the market, reigning as the best-selling drugs by mechanism of action with $38.9 billion in sales. Keytruda and Opdivo spearheaded this success, collectively contributing $34 billion in annual sales or 87 per cent of the PD1 market. Contrastingly, GLP1 antagonist sales in 2023 showcase a more diversified landscape, with therapeutics such as Ozempic, Trulicity, and Mounjaro driving 71 per cent of the sales.”
Looking ahead, the GLP1 agonist market is poised for robust growth, anticipating a 19.2 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2029, reaching a substantial market size of $105 billion in 2029. In contrast, the PD1 antagonist market forecasts a slower growth rate, projecting a 4.7 per cent CAGR and a market size of $51 billion in 2029, nearly half of the GLP1 agonist market.
Marcaida analyses, “The pharma landscape is undergoing a transformative shift, as GLP1 agonists are poised to surpass PD-1 antagonists as the best selling drugs from 2024 onward. This shift could reflect a changing demand away from oncology toward addressing metabolic disorders.”
Leading the charge in the GLP1 market are five key drugs: Mounjaro, Ozempic, Wegovy, Cagrisema, and Rybelsus, which are forecast to capture 83 per cent of the GLP-1 agonist market by 2029. Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro is predicted to lead in sales, generating an impressive $33.4 billion annually by 2029. However, Novo Nordisk is expected to emerge as the leading company, having a large portfolio of GLP1 drugs, and is expected to capture 55 per cent of the market share in 2029.