India’s pharma exports are projected to grow from $27 billion in 2023 to $65 billion by 2030 and could reach an estimated $350 billion by 2047. This growth is expected to position India as the healthcare custodian of the world, contributing to the vision of a Viksit Bharat. While India is the largest supplier of generic drugs globally, accounting for one in five generic drugs sold worldwide, the country currently ranks 11th in terms of export value. The report suggests that by innovating and diversifying its export basket, India can secure a position among the top five nations in export value by 2047.
These findings are part of a report by Bain & Company titled ‘Healing the World: Roadmap for Making India a Global Pharma Exports Hub,’ created in collaboration with the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance (IPA), Indian Drugs Manufacturers Association (IDMA), and Pharmexcil. The report was released today at IDMA’s 63rd Annual Day in Mumbai by Piyush Goyal, Union Minister of Commerce and Industry.
Piyush Goyal said, “India has long been the pharmacy of the world. Now we want to change the narrative to ‘India as the healthcare custodian of the world’. The government is fully committed to achieving this goal by fostering innovation, boosting R&D, and ensuring seamless regulatory processes. By strengthening collaboration between academia, industry, and government, we will continue to build a globally competitive sector that drives growth and contributes to healthcare worldwide.”
Sriram Shrinivasan, Partner at Bain & Company, added, “The transition from volume-based to value-led growth is essential for Indian pharma to secure its rightful place in the global market. Innovation, including the shift towards specialty generics, biosimilars, and novel products, will be the key to India’s pharmaceutical future. With the right focus on quality, regulation, access to global markets, talent, and entrepreneurial innovation, India can rise to be among the top five pharma exporters globally by 2047. India’s evolution from a nascent pharma exporter to achieving 10x growth over the past two decades (~$3 billion to ~$27 billion between CY03-23) is a clear testament to its vast potential.”
The report identifies several sectors as key contributors to this growth.
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs): India’s API export market is expected to grow from $5 billion to $80-90 billion by 2047. With China currently holding 35 per cent of the outsourced market, shifts in global supply chains and initiatives like the US Biosecure Act could offer opportunities for India. India’s competitive advantages, such as low labour costs, high service levels, and a skilled workforce, position the country to capture a significant share. Success in APIs will require expertise in innovative chemistries, self-sufficiency in critical key starting materials (KSMs), integration with the specialty chemical industry, and expansion of bulk drug parks.
Biosimilars: Indian players currently hold less than 5 per cent of the global biosimilars market, but growth is expected due to increasing R&D investments and an expanded product pipeline. Indian biosimilar exports, valued at ~$0.8 billion, are projected to grow 5x to $4.2 billion by 2030, capturing 4 per cent of the global market, and reach $30-35 billion by 2047. India will need to invest strategically in biopharma parks, skill upgradation, and R&D incentives to compete with larger players in China and Korea.
Generic formulations: Exports of generic formulations, which currently make up ~70 per cent of India’s pharma exports, valued at ~$19 billion, are projected to grow to $180-190 billion by 2047. To drive this shift, India must focus on scaling up specialty generics, which offer higher margins. This will require developing clinical trial capabilities for specialty generics, establishing a presence in international markets, and strengthening mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and business development skills.
Dr. Viranchi Shah, National President of the Indian Drug Manufacturers Association (IDMA), noted, “India can become one of the leaders in pharma exports, but needs strategic interventions. Bulk drug parks are key to API export growth—India must scale efforts to revive and strengthen its API industry while improving energy supply, waste treatment, and road connectivity. With under 5 per cent penetration of generic formulation exports in NAFTA and Europe, a country-specific export strategy and MRAs to address non-tariff barriers are essential. R&D and innovation must be prioritised through collaborations between industry, government, and academia.”
Additional growth drivers include vaccines, innovative products such as New Chemical Entities (NCEs), New Biological Entities (NBEs), and the Contract Research Organization (CRO) and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) sectors. India currently supplies 55-60 per cent of UNICEF’s vaccines but lags in value due to multinational corporation dominance. The focus should be on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in the near term, with long-term efforts targeting high-income countries (HICs). India has over 40 NCE and NBE assets in its pipeline, with innovative exports expected to reach $13-15 billion by 2047. Prioritising R&D in rare diseases, ramping up investments, and developing expertise in new modalities such as oncology will be crucial.
Sudarshan Jain, Secretary General of the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance (IPA), said, “India aims to become a $30 to $35 trillion economy by 2047, which marks the 100th year of the country’s independence. To achieve this, the pharmaceutical industry must excel on all fronts. The pharma sector is the fifth largest contributor to manufacturing GVA, drives ~4 per cent of India’s FDI inflows, generates a $19 billion trade surplus, and supports 2.7 million livelihoods. It is crucial to double down on Indian pharmaceutical exports, which currently account for 6 per cent of India’s total merchandise exports by value.”
Raja Bhanu, Director General of Pharmexcil, added, “The USP of Indian generics has always been ‘Quality, Affordability, and Scalability.’ This will continue to be foundational as we move towards ‘Bharat@2047’, envisioning exports of specialty generics, biosimilars, vaccines, biologics, personalised medicines, advanced gene therapies, and CDMO/CRO services with a market size of $350 billion. We will achieve this through bold and strategic investments, smart domestic and foreign trade policy initiatives, regulatory harmonisation, and an ecosystem that fosters innovation and collaboration among stakeholders.”
Key trends shaping the growth story include the shift towards value through CDMO/CRO, the drive for supply chain resilience, and robust funding for Indian pharma.
Shift towards value through CDMO/CRO: Indian CDMOs and CROs are increasingly expanding roles across the value chain, from research to clinical trials, focusing on high-value innovative products. This shift, along with the out-licensing of IP-driven products, will help capture a larger portion of the value chain.
Supply chain resilience: India has a unique opportunity to leverage global supply chain shifts, particularly with the move away from reliance on China. India is well-positioned to capitalise on this trend, with initiatives like “Make in India” and approximately $3 billion in production-linked incentives (PLI) for pharmaceuticals and medical devices.
Robust funding for Indian pharmaceuticals: Private equity and venture capital investments in the healthcare sector have surged, strengthening India’s biopharma capabilities and positioning the country for global competitiveness.
India’s pharmaceutical sector is on track for transformative growth, with government and private sector collaboration playing a key role in driving innovation. By 2047, India’s pharmaceutical industry will not only contribute to the nation’s economic growth but will also position the country as a global leader in healthcare, in line with the vision of Viksit Bharat.