The opioid addiction market across the eight major markets (8MM*) is poised to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.8 per cent from $2.0 billion in 2023 to $2.4 billion in 2033, according to GlobalData.
GlobalData’s latest report “Opioid Addiction: Opportunity Assessment and Forecast,” reveals that growth will primarily be driven by an increase in diagnosed prevalent cases, as well as an increase in treatment rates and the introduction of four late-stage pipeline products – cannabidiol, mazindol controlled release (CR), probenecid, and TRV-734.
Jos Opdenakker, Neurology Analyst at GlobalData, states, “Of the four late-stage pipeline products, three of them (cannabidiol, mazindol CR, and probenecid) are non-opioids. Cannabidiol and mazindol CR are expected to be used as potential adjunctive treatments in addition to the standard of care in the treatment of opioid use disorder, driving an increase in the OUD market. Probenecid is indicated for the treatment of OWS and is expected to take market share from existing OWS agents.”
GlobalData forecasts that the late-stage pipeline products could drive combined sales of approximately $171.4 million in the 8MM by 2033. Trevena’s TRV-734 will be the most promising pipeline product, indicated for the treatment of opioid withdrawal syndrome (OWS).
According to GlobalData forecasts, TRV-734 could generate global sales of approximately $77.6 million by 2033. It has the potential to see strong uptake due to its position as a partial mu-opioid receptor agonist. This means that it has the potential to elicit the partial effects of opioids but not the full effect, and this could limit some of the distressing side effects and potentially prevent withdrawal associated with existing opioid-based treatments.
Opdenakker adds, “While the OUD pipeline agents will bring new mechanisms to market, they are unlikely to become first line treatments. The need for effective non-opioid treatments that do not target the mu receptor, which could potentially replace opioids as first-line therapies, remains.”
Opdenakker continues, “The overall opioid addiction market is expected to experience growth until 2033; however, continued generic erosion will be an important barrier. Generic erosion is expected to be particularly significant in the US opioid addiction market.”
In 2023, the US represented the largest market for opioid addiction, with 74.1 per cent of the 8MM sales, due to its larger patient population and the high price of medications. Although the US is expected to remain the largest market for opioid addiction at the end of the forecast period, its proportion of global sales is expected to fall to 70.5 per cent in 2033.
The decline in the contribution of the US opioid addiction market will be fueled by the patent expiries of Indivior’s extended-release formulation of buprenorphine, Sublocade, which was the top-selling drug in the opioid addiction market in 2023, Alkermes’ Vivitrol (naltrexone ER), Braeburn’s long-acting buprenorphine product, Brixadi and Orexo US’ Zubsolv (buprenorphine), all of which will expire throughout the forecast period, resulting in sales erosion amongst the key OUD therapies.
Opdenakker concludes, “Although the impending entry of numerous generic products will act as a major barrier to growth and the introduction of the late-stage pipeline products is limited in their potential to generate significant revenues to counter the generic erosion, the increase in diagnosed prevalence, treatment rates, and general awareness surrounding opioid addiction will continue to act as the main drivers of growth across the 8MM.”
*8MM- US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Canada, and Australia