Diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV across 7MM to reach 2.2 million in 2033, forecasts GlobalData

The diagnosed prevalent cases of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the seven major markets (7MM*) are projected to increase at an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.90 per cent from 2.00 million in 2023 to 2.18 million in 2033, forecasts GlobalData.

GlobalData’s latest report, “Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): Epidemiology Forecast to 2033,” estimates that in 2033, the US will have the highest number of diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in the 7MM, with approximately 1.46 million cases, whereas Japan will have the fewest diagnosed prevalent cases with approximately 34,400 cases.

Casey Freimuth, Senior Epidemiologist at GlobalData, says: “Diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV are expected to increase due to a combination of the increased diagnosis rate of HIV, the increased life expectancy of HIV-positive people due to anti-retroviral treatment (ART), and population dynamics in the 7MM.”

There are tools available to reduce future HIV prevalence, such as viral suppression through ART, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). PrEP is only recently approved in the US and 5EU**, and not yet accepted in Japan.

Freimuth concludes: “Future efforts to reduce the burden of HIV should involve increased attention on reducing transmission, either through PrEP or through the use of ART, in combination with education and increased access to testing.”

*7MM: The US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan.

**5EU: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK.