Donald Trump’s return sparks uncertainty for US pharma and healthcare industries: GlobalData

Donald Trump’s return to the White House brings renewed uncertainty to the US pharmaceutical and healthcare industries, with potential shifts in policies affecting millions. His possible repeal or restructuring of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), coupled with plans to appoint anti-vaccine advocate Robert F Kennedy Jr. to a prominent healthcare role, raises concerns over public health funding, vaccine policies, and healthcare coverage, according to GlobalData.

Cyrus Fan, Research Analyst, Pharma at GlobalData, stated, “During his first term, Trump attempted but failed to repeal ACA but he may consider revisiting it. However, in his 2024 campaign, he stated he would not pursue an ACA repeal in his second term, opting instead to propose an alternative plan—details of which remain unclear. Over the past four years, the ACA has gained widespread support under the Biden Administration, and any restructuring could significantly impact millions of Americans. Medicaid may also face changes, as Trump previously proposed adding work requirements; however, he has not addressed this during his recent campaign.”

Notably, Trump is keen to appoint former Democrat Robert F Kennedy Jr. (RFK) into a healthcare position in Congress. RFK is a known anti-vaccine advocate and major critic of the drug industry and FDA. Trump has revealed to be willing to give free reign towards RFK, which could result in reforms to the FDA and restructuring of other health agencies, like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). RFK’s influence into the next administration could impact health security, eroding vaccine recommendations and cutting funding to public health.

Fan continues, “Appointing RFK the position as health secretary may have damaging implications for the US healthcare. Given his anti-vaccine rhetoric and negative comments towards the FDA, it raises the questions for the future of US drug approvals and the FDA’s regulatory power. In addition, dismantling the CDC and other health agencies could jeopardise US public health and slow down all the work made during the Biden Administration. This includes addressing the opioid epidemic and the Cancer Moonshot program.

For the pharma industry, there may be some positives. Trump has previously made promises to lower drug prices in the US. However, drug pricing has not been a focus of his 2024 presidential campaign and not much has been mentioned around this topic. Trump appears to have abandoned his previous proposal to lower drug costs through international reference pricing. He has vowed to push through amendments of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) but has stopped short of suggesting a complete repeal of the IRA. He may seek to target other areas of the pharmaceutical industry, such as pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), which remain a topic of interest for Republican lawmakers to target in recent months.

Fan concludes, “Trump provided limited details on healthcare policy during his 2024 campaign, leaving experts to speculate on potential changes in 2025. Many Americans may fear that their healthcare coverage through the ACA or Medicaid could be at risk. For the pharmaceutical industry, Trump appears less focused on imposing reforms this term, although he has expressed an interest in introducing drug cost-reduction measures—albeit less aggressively than the proposals by Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.”