GlobalData upgrades Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine sales forecast to $37 bn in 2022

Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, witnessed a record demand in 2022 with forecast sales of $37 billion. The vaccine is expected to maintain the sales dominance it saw during the COVID-19 pandemic going into the future, with the average annual sales forecast rising by 19 per cent between H1 and H2 2022, according to GlobalData’s Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Sector Forecast: H2 2022 Global Analyst Consensus Sales Forecast report. 

Kevin Marcaida, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments, ”Comirnaty’s 2022 sales forecast is expected to rise by eight per cent, likely due to Pfizer winning a $3.2 billion agreement with the US government to supply 105 million doses for an autumn vaccination campaign. The deal also offers the US the option to procure an additional 300 million doses, including a mix of doses for both adults and children, which could boost future sales if the option is used.”

In 2023, Comirnaty is expected to have an even better year, with sales forecasts up by 16 per cent. This is attributed to Q3 2022 approvals for Comirnaty’s BA.4 and BA.5 bivalent booster vaccines across key geographies including the US, Japan, and the UK, as well as Comirnaty gaining approval for paediatric use in children ages 6 months to 11 years in the US, Japan, and other geographies.

In the long term, Comirnaty is expected to continue its momentum with forecast sales up by over 20 per cent from 2024 to 2027. This is likely due to Pfizer’s announcement to increase Comirnaty’s US prices four-fold in 2023 from an average of $30 per dose to an estimated $110–130 per dose. The move should be in line with the US beginning to exhaust its vaccine stockpile alongside the transition towards a privatised commercial model for COVID-19 therapeutics.

Marcaida concludes, “Comirnaty will likely remain the top-selling COVID-19 vaccine despite the fact that vaccinations are expected to decline as pandemic pressures begin to ease. Comirnaty’s greater sales volume may be attributed to the approval of its Omicron booster vaccine and its approval for paediatric use, which is likely to increase sales in the short and medium term. In combination with Pfizer’s move to increase pricing in the US, this could lead to increased revenue over the long term.”