GLP-1R market: A two-horse race, says GlobalData

The popularity of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) drugs has exploded in recent years due to their ability to effectively treat metabolic-related disorders such as obesity and type 2 diabetes. As obesity rates rise and trust in GLP-1R products grows, sales for drugs targeting this receptor are forecast to increase fourfold to an estimated $142 billion by 2030. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are poised to dominate the market, collectively capturing 94 per cent of the total 2030 GLP-1R sales, which places them far ahead of any competitors in this category, says GlobalData.

According to GlobalData, the 11 approved drugs in the GLP-1R category generated $37.2 billion in 2023, cementing their place as one of the most lucrative therapies.

Jasper Morley, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly accounted for nine of the approved GLP-1R products in 2023 and encompassed 99 per cent of the sales. Successful GLP-1R products in 2023 included Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy, which generated $13.9 billion and $4.6 billion, respectively, as well as Eli Lilly’s Trulicity and Mounjaro, which generated $7.1 billion and $5.1 billion.”

Over the next seven years, the GLP-1R market is expected to expand to 35 approved products from 16 companies. Notably, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are predicted to account for 57 per cent of these products on the market.

Morley adds, “Despite vast increases in the number of products and competitors expected to enter the GLP-1R market, sales attributed to the 14 companies other than Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are forecast to generate only $8.8 billion in 2030, 15 times less than the combined valuation of the two leading companies.”

Amgen, the company ranked third in terms of GLP-1R sales in 2030, is forecast to generate only $3 billion, driven entirely by the product maridebart cafraglutide, which is currently in Phase II for type 2 diabetes and obesity.

Morley concludes, “By 2030, Eli Lilly is expected to overtake Novo Nordisk to become the leading company in terms of GLP-1R sales, with $67.7 billion. Eli Lilly is estimated to market the two top-selling GLP-1R products in 2030, with Mounjaro forecast to generate $27.4 billion and Zepbound forecast to generate $27.3 billion. Novo Nordisk follows closely behind, with Ozempic generating $22.4 billion of the company’s $65 billion portfolio. Combined, the GLP-1R portfolios for these companies are forecast to generate $133 billion in 2030.”

Edits made by EP News Bureau