MDD market across 8MM to reach $9.6 bn by 2029 driven by novel drug launches: GlobalData

The major depressive disorder (MDD) market is forecast to grow from $4.7 billion in 2019 to $9.6 billion by 2029 across the eight major markets (8MM*) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4 per cent, according to GlobalData.

GlobalData’s latest report, ‘Major Depressive Disorder: Eight-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis – Update, reveals that the main driver of growth will be recently approved drugs including Johnson & Johnson’s Spravato (esketamine) and Axsome Therapeutics’s Auvelity (bupropion + dextromethorphan), and the launch of eight new pipeline products across the 8MM.

Philippa Salter, Neurology Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “The MDD market is a crowded and competitive space with a large number of products available for the treatment of patients, the majority of which are available as inexpensive generics. The new pipeline and recently approved products will have significantly higher costs of therapy when compared with these generic products, which will drive market growth.”

GlobalData has identified that some of the key unmet needs in the MDD market are for products that have improved efficacy and safety profiles and that can show rapid anti-depressant effects when compared with available treatments.

Salter continues, “Auvelity was the first oral fast-acting antidepressant to enter the MDD market when it was approved by the FDA in 2022. With improvements in depressive symptoms seen from one week of treatment as well as these effects being sustained, Auvelity is expected to see strong uptake in the US market, where it is forecast to be the top selling drug in the MDD market, with a forecast sales of approximately $1.53 billion in 2029.”

GlobalData also anticipates that the most promising pipeline product will be Johnson & Johnson’s aticaprant, with its novel mechanism of action as a kappa type opioid receptor antagonist, and its focus on anhedonia, a hard to treat symptom of MDD, will have the potential to see strong uptake. GlobalData forecasts that aticaprant could generate global sales of approximately $670.63 million by 2029.

Continued generic erosion will be an important barrier to growth in the MDD market. Several key products, including Trintellix (vortioxetine), which was the top-selling drug in the MDD market in 2019 with sales of $904.0, and Rexulti (brexpiprazole), will face patent expiries during the forecast period.

Salter concludes, “Generic erosion is expected to be particularly significant in the Japan market, with the patent expiries of Lexapro (escitalopram), Cymbalta (duloxetine), and Effexor XR (venlafaxine ER) also occurring early in the forecast period, resulting in generic erosion in the selective-serotonin reuptake inhibitor and serotonin-noradrenaline reuptake inhibitor drug classes.”

* 8MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Canada