Pancreatic cancer market to reach $4.1 billion by 2029: GlobalData

The pancreatic cancer market has seen the launch of premium-priced therapies in the last three to four years in late-stage pancreatic cancer patients, resulting in current valuation at $1.9 billion in 2019. GlobalData forecasts an increase to $4.1 billion in 2029 at a moderate compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2 per cent with the expected launch of nine pipeline products across the eight major markets (*8MM).

The company’s report, ‘Pancreatic Cancer – Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2029’, reveals that CP-613 (devimistat), developed by Rafael Pharmaceuticals, and Masiviera (masitinib), developed by AB Science, will be the lead candidates in the first-line from a clinical and commercial standpoint. Launches for NTRK inhibitors, Vitrakvi and Rozlytrek, in the **5EU and ***ASPAC will provide further market growth and diversification. This forecast period will likely also see the introduction of novel agents, namely CORT 125134 (relacorilant) and SM-88 (racemetyrosine) in the third-line setting, where currently no specific treatment exists, and supportive care is heavily relied upon.

Aarohi Rede, Oncology Analyst at GlobalData, comments, “Pancreatic cancer is primarily a chemotherapy dominated market, which includes low priced generic drugs currently forming the backbone of the treatment paradigm. Growth in pancreatic cancer therapy market will be driven by the introduction of drugs with novel mechanisms of action, across several lines of therapies, which are poised to meet high unmet need in the US and 5EU.

“Market growth trends are indicative of shift in market consumption from chemotherapy to use of targeted therapies, and a shift in the treatment paradigm towards personalized medicine approaches between 2019 and 2029. Kinase inhibitors, comprising several classes of pipeline agents currently in development, are expected to be the frontrunners among the pipeline agents over the forecast period, occupying roughly 22 per cent of market share by 2029.”

Pancreatic cancer is characterised by expression of several genetic mutations and tumour biomarkers, many of which, such as NTRK gene fusions, PD-L1 expression, and elevated levels of microsatellite instability (MSI) levels, are considered actionable mutations and have been utilised to target tumour cells by recently launched targeted therapies. Although applicable in a small percentage of populations, key opinion leaders (KOLs) interviewed by GlobalData have identified targeted drugs such as immune checkpoint inhibitors and PARP inhibitors to be revolutionary in pancreatic cancer from a clinical standpoint.

Rede continues, “Pancreatic cancer has historically been an indication with high unmet need with delayed detection of the disease, rapid progression, lack of effective therapies, high clinical trial failure rates, and poor survival outcomes. With targeted therapies gaining more acceptance and popularity among treating physicians, there is a growing emphasis around biomarker testing and early detection.

“Additionally, GlobalData’s analysis highlights that the transition of pancreatic cancer staging from the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th edition to the 8th edition has led to further categorisation of patients into later stages of the disease resulting in higher proportions of advanced cases. That, combined with high trial failure rates, has left this indication difficult to tackle. These agents provide unique opportunity for patients expressing these biomarkers to obtain superior clinical results in combination with other established agents.”

Pancreatic cancer is a high-need, high-opportunity oncology indication with growing incidence globally. GlobalData has identified urban China as a high growth market in this indication, being classified as a one of the largest pancreatic cancer markets along with the US and Japan in 2029. The US, however, is still expected to be the market leader in 2029, being valued twice as much as in 2019, thus highlighting interesting market dynamics for this indication based on incidence rates, clinical approaches and product commercialisation.

*8MM = US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, and Urban China

**5EU = France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK

***ASPAC = Japan, Urban China