Pricing pressures and regulatory overhang affect margins of Indian pharma companies in FY2023: ICRA

The revenue for 16 Indian pharma companies is expected to grow by four to six per cent in FY2023, marginally lower than the growth of approximately 7.7 per cent in FY2022, predicts ICRA. While the same will be supported by five-to-seven per cent Year-on-Year (YoY) growth in the domestic market and four-to-five per cent in the United States (US) business, revenue from the European market is expected to contract marginally, given the ongoing macro-economic challenges and the large base of the previous fiscal that was supported by vaccine sales. For FY2024, ICRA expects the sample set revenues to grow by six-to-eight per cent, primarily driven by the domestic and emerging markets, a statement from ICRA notified.

As for operating margins, after contracting by 110 bps to 21.5 per cent in FY2022, they are expected to contract further by 50-100 bps in FY2023 due to high input costs during H1 FY2023 and continued pricing pressures in key markets of the US and Europe. Moderation in raw material prices and improved earnings due to First-To-File (FTF) launches in the US market will continue to support margins for the sample set players in FY2023, the statement said.

ICRA maintains its stable outlook on the pharma industry, led by expectations of continued steady revenue growth and comfortable profit margins. It expects the sample set’s return indicators, capital structure and coverage indicators to remain comfortable, despite higher capex and R&D expenses, which are likely to be partly funded through strong internal accrual generation and available surplus liquidity, the statement added.

It further informed that during Q2 FY2023, the sample set registered a YoY growth of seven per cent in revenues in Q2 FY2023, supported by 11.4 per cent growth from the US market and 6.2 per cent in the domestic market. The same was offset by 7.6 per cent contraction in revenues from the European markets.

Commenting on the headwinds in the European market, Mythri Macherla, Assistant Vice President and Sector Head, ICRA, said in the statement, “Revenues of ICRA’s sample set from Europe continue to witness headwinds such as muted demand, the depreciation of the EUR against the INR, and pricing pressures due to increasing competition. Some companies are thus exiting non-profitable markets and/or products to protect their margins as the ongoing inflationary pressures are also impacting the cost of imports from Europe. The market conditions in Europe are expected to remain challenging, given the ongoing macro-economic issues, even as the same is expected to be mitigated for some companies to a certain extent by expansion in product offerings and market share gains in the existing products. Overall, revenues for the sample set from the Europe market are expected to contract marginally in FY2023.”

For the domestic market, the sample set is expected to witness a growth of five-to seven per cent in FY2023. This will largely be supported by the WPI-linked price hike for the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) products, sustained healthy volumes across both chronic and acute segments, new product introductions, and annual price hikes for non-NLEM products. Steps being taken by sample set companies towards new product introductions and enhancement in the field force are expected to support their growth going forward. However, increasing competition in some therapeutic areas and large base will impact growth to a certain extent, the statement added.

As for the US market, in line with the trends in the recent past, mid-to-high single-digit pricing pressure is expected to continue over the near term for generics, with some normalisation expected only after a few quarters. That said, during Q2 FY2023, the sample set reported a 11.4 per cent YoY revenue growth against 4.2 per cent YoY growth in Q1 FY2023. The growth was primarily propelled by the launch of lenalidomide, a generic therapeutic equivalent of Bristol Myers Squibb’s (Celgene) cancer drug – Revlimid, under eligibility for 180-day exclusivity with the first-to-market opportunity. Growth was also aided by good performance of some specialty products and partly due to the base effect. Moreover, seven per cent depreciation of Indian rupee against US dollar also supported growth to some extent, it stated.

Commenting on the recent pick-up in inspections by the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA), Deepak Jotwani, Assistant Vice President and Sector Head, ICRA, said in the statement, “With the USFDA re-commencing physical inspections of manufacturing facilities and some companies receiving form 483s and warning letters, regulatory risks remain a key monitorable. Any adverse outcome in the form of warning letters or import alerts for key facilities could impact the companies’ business prospects.”

Most major Indian pharma companies continue to focus on emerging markets to fuel their growth, given that they continue to face pricing pressure in the US and the European markets. The growth in emerging markets also continues to be driven by new product launches, strong demand, and depreciation of rupee against certain currencies.